Final Table Cash Equity
While playing the final table of the $1,500 Pot-Limit Hold'em event, I
found myself in a difficult spot when we were down to four-handed play.
I was in the big blind and Rizen, a tough, respected online tournament
pro, was in the small blind. It was folded to Rizen who announced that
he would raise the pot. With blinds of 15K/30K, his raise made it 90K to
me.
At the time, I had about 400K in chips; Rizen had 750k and the other two
players had about 250K each.
I looked at my cards and found As-8s, a pretty solid holding in
short-handed play. I decided to raise the size of the pot. My total bet
was 180. Rizen immediately re-raised, forcing me all-in.
The pot contained 580,000 (400,000 from Rizen, 180,000 from me) and I
had 220,000 remaining. I was getting nearly 3 to 1 on my money, so this
looked like an automatic call. I needed to win the pot only about 27
percent of the time to justify a call.
Against a big pocket pair (other than aces), my A-8 suited would win
about 32 percent of the time. Against a bigger ace (A-K, A-Q, etc), my
A-8 suited would win
about 30 percent of the time. There was also a non-zero (though small)
chance I was up against a small pocket pair and would win about 50
percent of the time.
So
this was almost a zero-equity chip decision. That is, folding and
calling would have pretty much same result over the long term. To find
the correct action, I had to look beyond pot odds and consider (a) how
this hand would affect my cash equity for the tournament (i.e., which
action would maximize my expected cash payout) and (b) how this hand
would affect my chances of winning the tournament.
There were two factors I looked at when considering my cash equity:
1 -
Each chip in a short stack is more valuable in terms of cash-equity than
each chip in a large stack. By calling in this situation I would have
been risking chips of great value to pick up chips of lesser value.
2 - Folding removes any chance of busting. By folding, I would give my
opponents a chance to bust on subsequent hands, which would move me up
to a bigger payday.
After looking at these factors, it seemed that folding was the clear
choice. But still, I had to think about how folding would effect my
ability to win the bracelet - which was my primary concern. Would I be
putting myself out of the running by giving up on so many chips? Not
really.
When there are more than two players remaining, each additional chip you
accumulate has a lesser impact on your ability to win the tournament. So
when the chip-equity decision is a wash, you are better off folding than
you are trying to accumulate more chips.
If you ever find yourself in a similar situation, you should also keep
in mind that there's a big difference between moving all-in and calling
all-in. When you move in, you can win the pot by forcing a fold. When
you call, this obviously isn't possible.
I
decided to fold and wait for a better spot, and I'm very glad that I
did.
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Rafe
Furst Plays Poker Exclusively At -
